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Sally


Pete M
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anyone get especially hammered?  I'm currently watching the yellow blobs heading my way.  hopefully by the time it gets here it'll just be a bunch of rain and sans windstorms. 

 

hope only goes so far though and so I got the chainsaw out of the barn and placed it in the garage for easy access.  :D 

 

 

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FWIW, some of you may remember that Hornbrod's daughter is an Air Force Captain stationed at Tyndall AFB. Tyndall is on a barrier island on the Florida panhandle, a bit east of Pensacola. They got badly hammered when the last big hurricane went through that area -- to the point that they had buildings blown down.

 

I checked in with her on Wednesday evening, and she reported that -- so far -- they've just seen heavy rain but nothing catastrophic.

 

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If you can believe it, we're getting remnants of it here in southern VA.  Supposed to get 3-4 inches by tonight in my back yard.  Yay.

 

I'm a little bit concerned about Teddy out there in the Atlantic.  Depending on how the atmosphere sets up north and west of it, the track *could* take it somewhere into the US East coast (although doubtful as far south to affect things around here).  I hesitate to mention the dreaded "S" hurricane name....our friends up in the New England area don't really need anything tracking that way.

 

What concerns me more is the wave that moved off the African coast a couple days ago....it is a "low rider" that has good potential to track the whole way across into the Caribbean.  That would mean big trouble for the SE US coast, anywhere from Florida north.  Not good.

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LOL....a tropical wave (atmospheric).  Pardon my horrible drawing skills, but it's the orange "X" in the picture off the African Coast.  It has potential to end up somewhere in the Caribbean.  From there, depending on the atmosphere at that time, it could end up going almost anywhere, but would definitely hit land somewhere.

 

Watch Teddy too, that thing is going to EXPLODE.  Has all the makings of a stong Cat 4 or even 5 storm.  It more resembles a deep Pacific typhoon than an Atlantic hurricane.  Hopefully it doesn't hit Bermuda (which just got nailed by Paulette).  It needs to find a break in the (high pressure) atmosphere to it's north to send it eastward, away from CONUS/Maritimes.

 

Yeah, I'm a weather geek.  If I had to do it all over again, I would be a cloud physicist.  I'd give certain body parts to be able to do a ride-along in a Hurricane Hunter aircraft.:jammin:

 

edit:  and don't count old Sally completely out.  It's dissolving into a low pressure/remnant area over land, but some models actually have it moving back off the east coast, curving southward and regenerating into a "new" storm.  It's happened before.....

Capture.JPG

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Found this, seems to be a pretty good explanation of tropical waves.  Been through a couple Pacific Typhoons back in the day.  Gets the adrenaline pumping for sure.  I'd hop a ride on the Hurricane Hunter with you, sans sacrificing body parts of course.  Plenty of fresh underwear would be my first consideration. :D

 

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/tropical-wave-explainer-tropics-hurricanes

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^^^That's just ugly.

 

We're approaching 2 inches now, according to our local NWS office storm total radar, with no end in sight.  I'll be home in about an hour and I'll check my rain gauge to see what we actually have so far.  Scattered reports of localized low level flooding are starting to come in around the area.  Probably shoulda drove the KJ to work today, I might be floating home in the Focus:laugh:

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2 hours ago, rokinn said:

  I'd hop a ride on the Hurricane Hunter with you, sans sacrificing body parts of course.  Plenty of fresh underwear would be my first consideration. :D

 

 

 

Back in High School, my buddy and I decided to join the Army.  If I'd have realized back then that the Air Force flew the HH's I probably would have considered going AF instead.  Oh well.....they probably wouldn't have let me fly anyway, I wear glasses.:sad: (but only when I want to see something)

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I joined the Army as well, but only after they insisted I come along, willingly or not.  Scuttle butt was my draft board was taking 50% marines just after the Tet offensive.  Wasn't my cup of tea.  For the extra year for enlisting I would get my choice of MOS's and that I qualified for most anything they had.   In reality they end up giving you 6 choices, which in reality is no choice at all.  They decided they needed Personnel Specialists.  As company clerk nobody messed with me and everyone wanted to be my friend.  Such is power!  :ninja:  Can still type like a speed demon.  Even glasses these days aren't as effective as they once were.  :shaking:

 

Best part was SCUBA diving the East China Sea. 

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LOL, I got hosed on my MOS as well.  My friend and I joined under the "buddy" system, were supposed to go through BCT/AIT together.  Yeah, none of that happened.  We both wanted to be mechanics, but they signed him in as 63B and me as 63J.  Neither of us had any idea there was any difference.  We both did BCT at Ft. Jackson, but he was a month ahead of me.  He went to Fort Lost in the Woods (Lenord Wood) for AIT, I ended up at Aberdeen Proving Grounds.

 

We ended up just shy of 5 inches of rain in my gauge last night.  I kept out outside/stray cat inside the garage overnight, lest she ended up floating away:laugh:  She did NOT want to go out this morning....

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NHC has designated that wave as tropical storm Wilfred (side note, the next system that forms will be named using the Greek alphabet....they're running out of names this season LOL).  I'm not drawing any early conclusions, but here's why I might be concerned.  At this point, it is almost a carbon copy of hurricane Isabel, which absolutely wrecked this area back in 2003.  It has formed just a hair (about 2 degrees) south of where Isabel was born, and is projected to take the same initial track.  I'll be quietly watching this one.

 

Wilfred current track, and the historical track of Isabel.  Eerily similar.

 

 

wilfred.JPG

Isabel.JPG

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Thanks Jeff for the updates, I am keeping an eye on that one also, could go just about anywhere but definitely understand your discomfort. Ever since '04 here in Central Florida just hearing the word hurricane gets my blood pressure up. That year sucked so bad, three hurricanes, we had 22 days without electricity. Before the 2nd hurricane I stood in line at a tool store for 4 hours waiting for a truck of generators while holding our 5 month old daughter, fortunately they let anyone with kids stand inside in the a/c. Our biggest tree which was an 80' tall pine uprooted and fell on the neighbors house but also lifted and broke our water supply. We had to have 4 more of those pines dropped before the 3rd hurricane because the root systems were lifting during the 2nd hurricane. When we got the electricity back after the 3rd storm and all the generators were turned off it was the strangest silence I have ever heard.

 

Buck. 

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When the Hurricane brushed by us in the beginning of August it took down a lot of trees, we were without power for 5 days. I live in a fairly rural area with a lot of forests and no close neighbors but at 2:00 am in the morning I could barely hear several generators and it sound like a bee hive. Could just barely hear it over my tinnitus.

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